Thailand’s Economy Yet to Recover: Facing Multiple Risks in 2025

Despite hopes from various sectors that Thailand’s economy will improve in 2025 compared to the previous year, many economists are saying the same thing: the Thai economy remains under heavy pressure from both domestic and global challenges. Several research institutions forecast GDP growth this year at only 2–2.7%, which is below its potential — and could decline further if global conditions worsen.

Dr. Supavud Saicheua from KKP notes that Thailand’s economic recovery in 2025 will be unsteady. The first half of the year may be supported by tourism and exports, but growth is expected to weaken in the second half, as government support slows down and financial conditions remain tight. The Bank of Thailand may need to consider cutting interest rates to support the economy.

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, also from KKP, says the Thai economy is currently in a “downward slide,” affected by short-term factors like potential policies under a possible “Trump 2.0” administration, and long-term structural problems such as an outdated economic model and declining access to credit.

Kasikorn Research Center compares the Thai economy this year to a “sick person rowing a boat in a storm,” struggling with external challenges, including war-related uncertainties and shifting global economic policies, while domestically, the country lacks economic resilience. The report emphasizes the urgent need to build internal strength and quickly find new engines for growth.

Dr. Amornthap Chavala from CIMB Thai describes 2025 as “a winding year for a slithering snake,” with many obstacles along the path — from unpredictable global trends to relying too much on international markets. While investment in electric vehicles (EVs) and battery sectors may offer some support, weak domestic purchasing power and strong competition from China remain serious constraints.

Somprawin Manprasert from SCB EIC warns that Thailand is entering a phase of ‘potential stagnation,’ where economic growth falls short of its potential. He cautions that without urgent structural reform, the country may face a stark ‘two-world’ divide: one of those who survive and another of those left behind — a situation that could escalate from an economic issue into a deep social problem.

In summary, 2025 will not be the year Thailand fully recovers economically. While there may be some signs of improvement, the economy is still weak due to

unstable global conditions and fragile domestic systems. The government needs to act quickly with proactive measures in spending, finance, and policy changes to stop the economy from getting worse.