Crypto Market Poised for Recovery if Fed Cuts Interest Rates This September !

The digital asset market has the potential to recover in the second half of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) begins to cut interest rates as expected. According to Worramet Chansan, an investment advisor from Merkel Capital, a rate cut by the Fed in Q3 could be a pivotal moment that positively impacts cryptocurrencies — especially if economic conditions are favorable.

Although the war in the Middle East is ongoing, it has not yet escalated to the point of disrupting key oil transport routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the market still expects inflation to remain moderate. Recent U.S. economic data also indicates a slowdown, with inflation coming in lower than expected and jobless claims increasing. These factors lead many to believe that the Fed is likely to reduce interest rates in September, with another possible cut in December.

Another key driver for the crypto market is regulatory progress in the U.S. Recently, the GENESIS Act was passed, officially supporting the use of stablecoins. This aligns with moves by major financial institutions such as JP Morgan, which is preparing to launch its own stablecoin. These developments are helping build investor confidence globally and reflect the growing integration of crypto into the mainstream financial system.

At the same time, institutional money from players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy is increasingly flowing into digital assets — especially Bitcoin, which continues to be accumulated and is gaining more support through Fed-related investment funds. In addition, the global money supply has hit a new record high, signaling that a new wave of growth in the crypto market may be on the horizon.

In Thailand, the tax exemption on profits from digital asset trading is another important supportive factor. This not only stimulates the domestic market but also increases the country’s potential to become a regional digital asset hub — particularly if the government maintains consistent policies and adapts regulations to support risk management and derivatives.

Investors should closely monitor developments in Q3. If the Fed begins cutting rates in September, the crypto market could enter a full-fledged bull phase — potentially marking the start of an Altcoin Season, especially if Bitcoin Dominance declines as per historical cycles.

However, investors must not forget that digital assets remain highly volatile. Investments should be made cautiously, with thorough research and proper risk assessment tailored to one’s financial situation. While opportunity may be emerging, being prepared for the risks is just as important.