Global Economy and Additional Risk Factors in 2024

Global Economy Analysis in 2024

In 2024, the global economy faces many significant challenges and changes that affect the growth and stability of economies worldwide. This year’s economic analysis has to consider factors that impact both the national and global levels.

Factors Affecting the Global Economy in 2024

The Change in Monetary and Fiscal Policy: In 2024, many countries worldwide still adjust their Monetary and Fiscal policies to cope with decreased inflation and increased interest rates. Central Banks worldwide, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), still tighten their monetary policy to reduce inflationary risk. Meanwhile, some countries are considering fiscal policies to stimulate the economy during the slowdown.
The Instability in Trade: The change in international trade still affects the global economy. The negotiation in trading between the USA and other countries, China and a group of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, has to be monitored. Imposing trade measures or Boycotts can still create volatility in the market and affect investment and growth.
Energy Crisis: Energy prices still fluctuate in 2024, because of the tension from geopolitics such as tensions in the Middle East and changes in oil-producing countries’ energy policies. The rising oil prices could drive up production and transportation costs, affecting economic growth and inflation.
The Change in Technology: Technology development, such as the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) or the change in Blockchain technology, plays an important role in changing the way of doing business and manufacturing. Although new technologies can create an opportunity for growth and increase efficiency, they also create challenges for adaptation and cybersecurity.
The Factors in Climate and Environment: Global warming and climate change disasters are still major factors affecting the economy. Dealing with environmental issues and investing in green technology remains challenging, particularly in food production, water management, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction.

Additional Risk Factors that Should Be Analyzed in 2024

The instability in Geopolitics: Political tensions in regions such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, continue to affect economic stability and international investment. Risks from geopolitical uncertainties can create volatility in financial and trade markets.
The Pandemic: The spread of new diseases or the return of mutated viruses remains a factor that must be monitored. The spread of diseases such as COVID-19 or new diseases can affect the global economy, especially in manufacturing, shipping, and travel.
The Change in Demography: Changes in population structure, such as the increase in the elderly population in many countries and the global movement of population, can affect economic growth and resource management needs.
The Risk in Monetary and Capital Market: Volatility in the capital market, rising public debt, and other financial problems remain risk factors for global financial system stability and long-term investment.

In the second half of 2024, economic issues that should be closely monitored include:

Monetary and Interest Policy: Changes in monetary policy from the central bank, such as interest rate adjustments, may affect the global economy and financial markets.
The Growth of the Chinese Economy: A recovery or a slowdown in the Chinese economy will affect the global economy as China is a major player in the global market.
The Instability in Trade: Trade conflicts and changing trade policies may affect international trade and investment.
Energy Price: Changes in oil and other energy prices can affect living and production costs.
The Labor Market: Changes in unemployment and labor shortages in some industries may affect economic growth.

Keeping up with these issues will help better understand the near-term economic outlook and its potential impact.

Conclusion

The global economy in 2024 remains a complex and deeply interconnected system. Analysis of the global economy now takes into account several factors that could affect both national and global levels. Economic uncertainties, changes in monetary and fiscal policy, fluctuations in energy prices, and other risk factors all play an important role in determining the direction of the global economy. Effective management of these risks is critical to maintaining global economic stability and growth.

References from
finnomena / thaipbs